通过使用数值技术和数据科学,分析以确定COVID-19传播的重要变量
Deepro F Pasha1, Alex Lundeen2, Dilruba Yeasmin3
1Clovis North Educational Center (CNEC), Fresno, CA, 93730, USA.
Case studies in chemical and environmental engineering
|April 15, 2024
概括
本研究确定了影响COVID-19传播动态的关键社会经济因素. 一个小组的变量,包括人口和收入,准确地预测病例数,帮助公共卫生战略.
科学领域:
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 社会系统影响公共卫生结果.
- 了解COVID-19传播的驱动因素至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响COVID-19传播的关键社会经济变量.
- 确定最佳的变量数量,以准确地预测差价.
主要方法:
- 应用系统理论和最小平方回归.
- 使用多线性回归 (MLR) 和非线性回归 (NLR).
- 分析了加州31个县的43个变量,探索了数百万种组合.
主要成果:
- 诸如总人口,家庭收入,职业和交通等社会经济因素是最重要的.
- 变量重要性和预测相关性随着更复杂的组合而增加.
- 五个变量组合实现了高精度 (相关系数高达0.985).
结论:
- 一组有限的社会经济变量可以有效地模拟COVID-19传播动态.
- 强调综合社会经济数据在流行病学中的预测能力.
- 研究结果支持基于关键社会因素的有针对性的干预措施.
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