冰川的静态调整减少了过去和未来的北极海底永久土
Roger C Creel1,2, Frederieke Miesner3, Stiig Wilkenskjeld4
1Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Nature communications
|April 15, 2024
概括
北极海底永久土易受海平面上升的影响. 在模型中包括冰川静态调整 (GIA) 显示了其对永久土厚度和不同气候情景下的未来稳定性的重大影响.
科学领域:
- 地球科学 地球科学 地球科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 永久土科学 永久土科学
背景情况:
- 北极的陆地永久土越来越多地被海平面上升淹没,形成海底永久土.
- 海底永久土覆盖北极架的约180万平方公里,深度可能超过700米.
- 过去的海平面波动影响了海底永久土,但模型没有纳入冰川静态调整 (GIA).
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个泛北极的海底永久土模型,包括过去40万年的GIA.
- 评估GIA对当前海底永久土厚度和分布的影响.
- 预测未来1000年的海底永久土在各种排放场景下未来的状态.
主要方法:
- 将GIA纳入泛北极海底永久土模型.
- 在过去的40万年里,海底永久土的演变模拟.
- 基于IPCC第六次评估报告的未来预测排放场景.
主要成果:
- GIA显著降低了当今海底永久土的估计厚度,主要是由于水位异静效应和冰盖变形.
- 预计在低排放场景下,海底永久土将持续存在.
- 海底永久土在很大程度上预计将在高排放场景下消失.
结论:
- GIA是准确建模海底永久土动态的一个关键因素.
- 未来海底永久土的稳定性高度依赖于全球排放轨迹.
- 高排放场景对北极海底永久土的存在构成重大威胁.
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