对于东非电力交易的基础设施充分性
Muhumuza Ezra Rubanda1, Livingstone Senyonga1, Mohammed Ngoma2
1Faculty of Economics, Energy and Management Science, Makerere University Business School (MUBS), Kampala, Uganda.
iScience
|April 16, 2024
概括
东非 东非 非洲 东非
科学领域:
- 能源系统工程 能源系统工程
- 基础设施发展 基础设施发展
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
背景情况:
- 综合能源市场需要强大的电力供应基础设施.
- 东非共同体 (EAC) 的目标是建立一个整合的电力市场.
- 追踪基础设施发展的进展对于市场整合至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估发电和输电基础设施是否足以促进东非综合电力市场的电力交易.
- 评估基础设施发展的进展与"总体规划2013-2023"中设定的目标相比.
主要方法:
- 获得价值分析 (EVA) 用于比较计划的基础设施目标与到2022年实际交付.
- 利用了2013-2023年总体规划和2022年实际基础设施数据的数据.
- 分析重点关注发电能力和输电网络扩建.
主要成果:
- 到2022年,计划的12,567MW发电容量的54%已经实现,而输电网络目标在211%的完成率超出预期.
- 基础设施发展的投资流入明显高于预期 (325%的差异).
- 获得价值的余相当于3.57亿美元,这表明尽管贸易活动比预期慢,但仍有贸易潜力.
结论:
- 虽然发电能力仍在发展,但输电基础设施已经先进,为电力交易创造了余容量.
- 建议进行代规划,以同步发电和输电基础设施的发展,以提高贸易效率.
- 调查结果表明,在EAC地区,基础设施建设和市场运营之间需要进行战略调整.
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