了解石油周期动态,设计未来的经济
Luis Enrique Garcia1, Aude Illig2, Ian Schindler3
1Section of Post Graduate Studies and Research, ESE, IPN, Mexico, Mexico.
概括
经济生产依赖于可用的能源. 这项研究使用提取率和联邦储备委员会利率对石油价格进行模型分析,预测2020年开始的低油价收缩阶段将在2020年开始.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 能源资源 能源资源
- 经济建模经济建模
背景情况:
- 经济生产从根本上与可用的能源有关.
- 之前的工作确定了石油价格作为经济规模,石油成本份额和开采数量的函数.
研究的目的:
- 为了澄清使用明确石油价格方程的假设.
- 为石油价格 (1966-2018) 开发一个线性回归模型.
- 分析石油开采和价格的未来发展轨迹.
主要方法:
- 线性回归分析.
- 使用当前和前一年的石油开采率.
- 纳入联邦储备委员会利率.
主要成果:
- 开发的模型与1966年至2018年的经验石油价格数据保持一致.
- 分析表明,世界石油开采将在2020年开始收缩阶段.
- 预计这种收缩将与相对较低的石油价格相吻合.
结论:
- 该研究通过历史数据验证了明确价格方程的扣除.
- 由于预测的石油市场变化,未来的经济可能面临挑战和机遇.
- 经济生产模型应该考虑能源的可用性和开采动态.
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