提高商业房地产评估的准确性:一种可解释的机器学习方法
Juergen Deppner1, Benedict von Ahlefeldt-Dehn1, Eli Beracha2
1University of Regensburg, IRE|BS International Real Estate Business School, Regensburg, Germany.
概括
机器学习,特别是树木增长,可以通过减少市场价值和交易价格之间的偏差来改善美国商业房地产 (CRE) 估值. 这提高了评估准确性,并消除了跨物业类型的偏见.
科学领域:
- 房地产经济学 房地产经济学
- 应用机器学习应用机器学习
- 金融估值 金融估值
背景情况:
- 美国商业房地产 (CRE) 部门的市场估值经常表现出不准确和偏见.
- 现有的估值实践可能无法完全捕捉影响房地产价格的复杂性.
- 该NCREIF财产指数 (NPI) 提供了一个数据集,用于分析1997-2021年CRE市场估值.
研究的目的:
- 评估美国商业房地产市场估值的准确性和偏见.
- 评估机器学习算法的潜力,特别是树的提升,以提高估值准确性.
- 将房地产估值中的机器学习应用扩展到住宅和多户住宅以外的办公室,零售和工业CRE资产.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自NCREIF财产指数 (NPI) 的美国商业物业数据集,涵盖1997-2021年.
- 采用机器学习算法,特别是树的提升,以分析估值偏差.
- 纳入了50个共变量,以确定市场价值和交易价格之间的差异的结构化变化.
主要成果:
- 提升树木成功地捕捉并解释了市场价值和交易价格之间的偏差的结构变化.
- 增强树的应用导致了评估准确度的提高,并消除了估值中的结构偏差.
- 对于公寓和工业物业,模型理解率最高,其次是办公室和零售建筑.
结论:
- 监督机器学习方法,比如提升树木,为提高美国CRE部门的最先进的估值实践提供了巨大的潜力.
- 这项研究是首次将机器学习应用于办公室,零售和工业CRE估值,扩展了之前的住宅应用.
- 调查结果对当局,银行,保险公司和投资基金有意义,这些机构希望改善房地产投资和风险管理.
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