值得问的未来问题值得做:一个有效的方法
1Paul Hammaker Professor of Business Administration, University of Virginia, The Darden School, Charlottesville, VA USA.
概括
这项研究主张在创业中接受不确定性,超越预测性推理. 它介绍了导航未知的效果原理,为企业家专业知识提供了新的研究途径.
科学领域:
- 企业家精神的创业精神
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 传统的创业模式往往依赖于预测性推理来预测创业和公司业绩等结果.
- 这种方法在处理企业家努力中固有的不确定性时面临局限性.
研究的目的:
- 挑战创业研究中预测推理的主导地位.
- 倡导有效化作为在深度不确定性条件下采取行动的框架.
- 提出基于效果原则的新研究方向.
主要方法:
- 关于创业专业知识的文献综述.
- 对于对预测模型进行影响的概念论证.
- 根据执行原则,确定五个新的研究项目.
主要成果:
- 实现为面对未知和不可知的结果的企业家提供了实际指导.
- 当结果本质上不确定时,预测标准会受到破坏.
- 提出了五个新的研究领域,重点是创造理想的未来,而不是预测它们.
结论:
- 通过影响来接受不确定性,为创业提供了更强大的方法.
- 实现原则可以指导行动,并在现场产生新的研究问题.
- 未来的研究应该探讨在不同的创业环境中实施的实际应用和影响.
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