中小企业在COVID-19复苏中的可行性
Fergal McCann1, Niall McGeever1, Fang Yao1
1Central Bank of Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.
概括
爱尔兰中小企业 (SMEs) 的财务困境预计将在疫情后减少. 然而,在疫情爆发之前,那些努力复苏的公司往往没有利,这凸显了需要流动性融资来确保长期可行性的必要性.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 商业研究 商业研究
- 金融稳定性 金融稳定性
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,COVID-19大流行对中小企业 (SMEs) 产生了重大影响.
- 了解中小企业疫情后的财务状况对于经济复苏至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测爱尔兰中小企业在各种流行后宏观经济情景下的财务业绩.
- 识别导致公司陷入困境和恢复的因素.
- 评估财政支持和信贷市场状况的影响.
主要方法:
- 来自爱尔兰中小企业代表性样本的调查数据的分析.
- 开发基线和替代宏观经济复苏情景.
- 模拟财政支持逐渐减少,部门需求变化和信贷风险缩减的影响.
主要成果:
- 在基准条件下,预计中小企业的财务困境将从2020年的12%下降到2024年的7%.
- 经历长期困境的公司在大流行之前主要是不利或处于困境.
- 虽然财政支持的逐渐缩减和部分部门的复苏的影响不大,但贷款的大幅收缩大大增加了困境.
结论:
- 提供流动性融资对于确保可行的中小企业的长期偿付能力至关重要.
- 政策干预应侧重于保持疫情前健康的企业获得融资的机会.
- 需要采取积极的措施来应对潜在的信贷市场缩减及其对中小企业复苏的影响.
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