COVID-19和航运货运费率之间的动态相互作用:一个量度对量度的分析
Khalid Khan1, Chi Wei Su2, Adnan Khurshid3
1School of Finance, Qilu University of Technology, Jinan, China.
概括
随着COVID-19大流行,航运运输货物成本受到严重影响,影响了需求和船舶可用性. 虽然长期增加了波罗的海干燥指数,但短期到中期它对油轮油轮指数产生了负面影响.
科学领域:
- 海洋经济学 海洋经济学
- 全球物流全球物流
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 2019年出现的COVID-19大流行导致了前所未有的全球破坏.
- 海运货物是全球贸易和经济活动的关键指标.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定COVID-19大流行对航运货运成本的影响.
- 分析COVID-19传播和关键航运指数之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 在量子方法上使用波列量子量.
- 分析了不同量度和时间地平线 (短期,中期,长期) 的影响.
主要成果:
- 由于需求减少和船舶不可用,COVID-19对航运货运成本产生了负面影响.
- 波罗的海干燥指数显示,高量度的波罗的海干燥指数在长期内产生了积极的影响.
- 波罗的海干油轮和波罗的海清洁油轮指数在中高量度 (短期/中期) 中经历了负面影响.
- 对波罗的海清洁油轮指数的长期积极影响在很大程度上被观察到.
结论:
- COVID-19 流行病和航运货物紧密相关,短期内观察到更多的因果关系.
- 航运业需要监测货运速度的动态,并调整法规以适应此类全球事件引起的突然变化.
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