房价对经济稳定的影响:经合组织国家的一些教训
Alam I Asadov1, Mansor H Ibrahim2, Ramazan Yildirim3
1Department of Finance, College of Business Administration, Prince Sultan University, Rafha Street, PO Box No. 66833, 11586 Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
概括
房价不稳定对经济增长产生重大影响,负面回报比积极回报的损害要大两倍. 高房价波动也导致经济不稳定,强调了房地产市场监管的必要性.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 金融市场 金融市场
- 宏观经济学 宏观经济学
背景情况:
- 现有的研究主要将房地产泡归因于金融系统和价格预期.
- 在了解房价不稳定的经济后果方面存在着显著的差距.
研究的目的:
- 研究住房价格与经济产出之间的关系.
- 分析房价波动对经济稳定的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自17个经合组织国家 (1970-2019) 的长期季度数据.
- 开发并测试了经济增长和波动性模型.
主要成果:
- 房价回报对经济增长产生了显著的不对称影响;负面回报的影响力是正面回报的两倍.
- 房价波动是导致经济不稳定的重要因素.
结论:
- 监测和监管房地产市场对于保持经济稳定至关重要.
- 提供了政策建议,以加强住房市场的稳定性和整体经济健康.
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