改进决策中的偏见:人们关注的是相对减少不良结果
William H Ryan1, Stephen M Baum2, Ellen R K Evers1
1Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley.
Psychological science
|April 16, 2024
概括
人们在做决定时往往专注于减少负面结果,而不是增加积极的结果. 这种相对的风险回避会影响资源分配,甚至会导致专业人士做出不理想的选择.
科学领域:
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 风险感知 风险感知
背景情况:
- 个人分配稀缺的资源来增强积极的结果.
- 决策往往涉及权衡潜在收益与成本.
研究的目的:
- 调查人们如何评估结果的改善.
- 为了确定人们是否专注于相对减少不良结果.
- 检查这种关注对风险偏好和决策质量的影响.
主要方法:
- 进行了11项研究,包括5,342名成年参与者.
- 在涉及为改善结果分配资源的场景中检查决策.
- 分析了成功的初始概率如何影响改进的估值.
主要成果:
- 人们优先考虑相对减少负面结果.
- 同一个改进的感知价值在最初的成功率上有很大差异.
- 这种偏见导致风险偏好偏离了规范标准.
- 决策后果和专业经验可以放大这些低于最佳的选择.
结论:
- 专注于相对风险降低,而不是绝对收益,指导资源配置.
- 这种启发式导致决策中的系统偏见.
- 了解这种偏见对于改善各种领域的决策质量至关重要.
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