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Benno J Ndulu¹, Stephen A O'Connell²

¹Mwalimu Julius Nyerere Professorial Chair on Development at the University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Journal of African economies

|April 16, 2024

概括

撒哈拉以南非洲国家面临着不断上升的公共债务和债务危机风险,由全球经济因素加剧. 优先考虑发展资产对于经济稳定和增长至关重要.

科学领域:

经济学经济学经济学
发展研究发展研究研究
公共财政是公共财政.

背景情况:

撒哈拉以南非洲地区的公共债务在全球金融危机后急剧上升,一些国家面临债务危机的高风险.
与之前的危机不同,区域性担忧直到2020年初才普遍存在,经济增长的政策环境普遍强.
外部风险,包括COVID-19的影响,市场债务增加和巴黎俱乐部参与减少,构成了整个地区的威胁.

研究的目的:

分析撒哈拉以南非洲公共债务和债务困境的不断变化的格局.
识别金融困境的新驱动因素,如信誉的转变和债权人协调挑战.
提出一个研究议程,重点是保护发展资产,同时增加债务服务义务.

主要方法:

对公共债务趋势和国际金融机构 (世界银行,国际货币基金组织) 的分类进行分析.
评估外部经济因素和债权人格格局的变化.
开发概念框架,以了解债务服务对发展开支的影响.

主要成果:

在多个撒哈拉以南非洲国家,公共债务和债务危机风险显著增加.
感知信用能力的出现是困境的关键驱动因素,使债务重组复杂化.
人们越来越担心债务服务义务正在挤出必要的开发,运营和维护预算.

结论:

保护和增强发展资产,包括人力资本和基础设施,至关重要.
国内政策,预防性债务重组和机构改革是管理债务困境所必需的.
专注于发展资产的积极主动方法对于该地区可持续的经济健康至关重要.

关键词:

JEL分类:H63,F34,O19,H50 其他类型

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