在南非干旱引起的牛脱产的实证分析
Prince Nketiah1, Herbert Ntuli1
1Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.
Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa)
|April 17, 2024
概括
干旱严重影响畜牧业,迫使小农放弃牲畜,导致收入损失. 影响这一决定的关键因素包括群体规模,收入和土地所有权.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 发展研究 发展研究 研究
背景情况:
- 干旱对小型畜牧业农民构成重大威胁,经常需要作为减缓策略脱产.
- 剥离库存可能会导致不利影响,如农场规划扭曲和收入损失,因为销售不论市场价格发生.
- 影响小农脱产决定的因素需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 评估南非干旱和牛脱产之间的关系.
- 确定影响小农牛养殖者干旱期间脱库存决策的社会经济和农民特定因素.
主要方法:
- 使用相关性分析来检查干旱和牛脱产之间的关系.
- 采用零膨胀的波桑 (ZIP) 回归模型来确定脱库存的决定因素,控制结构零.
- 利用了来自NIDS,南非气象局和粮农组织的2008-2017年的二次数据.
主要成果:
- 在干旱和南非生产的牛肉数量之间发现了显著的负相关性 (-0.67).
- 牛群的大小,收入,次要职业,料购买和土地所有权都对脱仓的决定产生了积极的影响.
- 家庭规模和干旱期间之前的牛群损失对退出库存的决定产生了负面影响.
结论:
- 干旱是小型农场主减少牛的关键驱动因素.
- 社会经济因素在农民在干旱期间下仓的决定中起着至关重要的作用.
- 了解这些决定因素对于制定有效的干旱减缓和支持弱势农业社区的战略至关重要.
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