在英国脱欧后退出:公众对未来欧盟成员国退出的看法
1European Institute, London School of Economics, London, UK.
概括
欧洲人对英国脱欧持谨慎态度,但许多人仍然认为未来脱欧很可能发生. 欧洲怀疑主义与期望更多的脱欧相关,而即使是欧盟爱好者也对欧盟凝聚力表现出一些怀疑.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 欧洲研究是欧洲研究.
- 公众论研究 公众论研究
背景情况:
- 英国脱欧经常被视为一个警告故事,但它强调了欧洲联盟 (EU) 解体的可能性.
- 最近的危机增加了对潜在的成员国脱离欧盟的关注.
研究的目的:
- 分析欧洲人对未来十年内欧盟退出可能性的看法.
- 调查欧洲怀疑主义和支持英国脱欧的情绪在这些观念中的作用.
主要方法:
- 利用了从16个欧洲国家收集的新调查数据.
- 采用后勤回归分析来建模感知未来退出的可能性.
主要成果:
- 发现了关于退出欧盟的公众意见中不对称的动机推理的证据.
- 欧洲怀疑主义和支持英国脱欧的观点与将未来脱欧视为可能的观点有很强的相关性.
- 欧洲爱好者的看法得到了改善,但没有逆转,这表明对欧盟凝聚力的剩余担忧.
结论:
- 确定了欧洲怀疑主义精英的政策立场和他们的支持者对退出可能性的看法之间的差距.
- 突出了欧洲人对英国脱欧的怀疑和他们对欧盟凝聚力的根本缺乏信心之间的差距.
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