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[基于SSP-RCP场景的土地变化模拟和洛斯高原的草原碳储存]

Xie Cui¹, Yan Dong¹, Lu-Yin Zhang¹

¹Faculty of Land Resources Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China.

Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue

|April 17, 2024

概括

洛斯高原未来的土地使用变化显示,建筑用地大幅扩张,影响生态系统的碳储量. 保护森林,耕地和草原是增加碳储存的关键.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
生态生态学生态生态学
气候变化研究气候变化研究

背景情况:

了解土地利用/覆盖面变化 (LUCC) 和生态系统碳储备对于气候变化下的可持续发展至关重要.
洛斯高原面临着动态的环境变化,需要对资源管理进行预测建模.

研究的目的:

根据不同的气候变化情景 (SSP-RCP),在洛斯高原上预测未来的LUCC和生态系统碳储量.
分析这些变化的驱动因素,并探索碳储量的空间相关性.
为优化土地资源分配和可持续政策提供科学基础.

主要方法:

整合了PLUS (土地利用模式模拟) 模型和InVEST (生态系统服务和权衡的综合估值) 模型.
利用基于共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 和代表性度路径 (RCP) 的CMIP6气候预测.
分析了LUCC和碳储量的时空动态,驱动因素和空间相关性.

主要成果:

在所有情景中,LUCC的预测表明建筑用地急剧增加,耕地,草原和未使用的土地减少.
预计到2060年,生态系统的碳储量将在大多数情况下下降,特别是在草原,尽管到2040年SSP126略有增加.
空间相关性分析揭示了跨城市的相互连接的碳储量,其中的热点在洛斯高原的中部和北部.

结论:

未来的LUCC趋势,特别是建筑用地扩张,将显著影响生态系统的碳储量.
保持和扩大林业,耕地和草原的面积对于增强生态系统碳储存至关重要.
政策干预应侧重于限制土地利用转型,以减轻碳损失和促进可持续发展.

关键词:

在CMIP6模型中,在InVEST模型中,这是一个PLUS模型.储存碳的方法是碳储存.土地使用/覆盖面的变化

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