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国际航空旅行的时间变化:对模拟传染病传播的影响
Jack Wardle1, Sangeeta Bhatia1,2, Anne Cori3
1MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Journal of travel medicine
|April 17, 2024
概括
在流行病模型中使用历史飞行数据通常是可以接受的,用于预测疾病传播. 然而,这种方法在大型流行病期间变得不可靠,导致全球旅行的重大中断,如SARS-CoV-2大流行.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 国际旅行促进了全球病原体的快速传播.
- 预测疾病传播依赖于及时的航空数据,这些数据往往无法获得.
- 历史飞行数据经常被用作流行病建模中当代数据的代理.
研究的目的:
- 评估历史飞行数据的准确性,以预测流行病的空间传播.
- 用历史与当代航空数据比较流行病建模结果.
- 为了确定在哪些条件下,历史飞行数据是可靠的代理.
主要方法:
- 来自国际航空运输协会的每月航空旅客数据的分析.
- 在中东呼吸综合征 (MERS),寨卡病毒和SARS-CoV-2疫情期间对旅行模式中断的评估.
- 模拟全球病原体传播使用SEIR超人口模型与历史和当代飞行数据的模拟.
主要成果:
- 轻微的,短期的旅行中断 (MERS,Zika) 显示了与历史和当代数据相似的模型预测.
- 大型,长期的全球旅行中断 (SARS-CoV-2) 降低了历史数据的可靠性.
- 历史数据对具有广泛旅行影响的非典型疫情的数据不太准确.
结论:
- 在大多数情况下,历史飞行数据是流行病建模的合适代理.
- 例外情况包括大规模的流行病导致重大和长期的国际旅行中断.
- 在前所未有的全球卫生危机期间,建模人员在使用历史数据时应谨慎使用.
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