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气候变化的经济承诺
Maximilian Kotz1,2, Anders Levermann1,2, Leonie Wenz3,4
1Research Domain IV, Research Domain IV, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
Nature
|April 17, 2024
概括
全球经济将在26年内因气候变化影响而面临19%的收入下降, 这些气候损害远远超过缓解成本,突显了迫切的适应需求.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 经济学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化损害预测通常依赖于长期平均温度影响.
- 近40年来来自全球1600多个地区的经验数据提供了新的观点.
研究的目的:
- 预测温度和降水变化带来的地方经济损失,包括极端情况.
- 评估未来排放的短期经济影响.
- 将气候损害与减缓成本进行比较.
主要方法:
- 使用来自全球1600多个地区的近期经验发现.
- 采用经验方法来确定对经济增长的影响的强有力的下限.
- 基于温度和降水,包括每日变化和极端情况的预测损害.
主要成果:
- 世界经济承诺在26年内减少19%的收入,无论未来的排放选择 (可能范围为11-29%).
- 这些损失是限制近期气候变暖到2°C的六倍.
- 预计除了极高度地区外,所有地区都会出现损失,而较低度地区的损失最大.
结论:
- 气候变化对经济增长的短期影响是显著的,而且在很大程度上是预先确定的.
- 气候变化带来的经济损害远远超过了短期缓解成本.
- 气候变化对收入和历史排放较低的低度地区产生不成比例的影响.
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