在埃及 (2022-2025) 预测牛奶产量时使用自回归集成移动平均模型
Mohamed A Omar1, Fardos A M Hassan1, Sara E Shahin1
1Veterinary Economic and Farm Management, Department of Animal Wealth Development, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Zagazig University, Zagazig, Egypt.
Open veterinary journal
|April 18, 2024
概括
预计埃及的牛奶产量将从2022年到2025年增加. 自行回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型预测牛奶产量的增加,帮助决策者在未来的规划.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 时间序列预测时间序列预测
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 牛奶是埃及的重要经济商品和蛋白质来源.
- 准确的牛奶产量预测对于政策制定者和农民来说至关重要.
- 了解未来的供应有助于短期和长期规划.
研究的目的:
- 预测埃及2022年至2025年的牛奶产量.
- 利用时间序列数据 (1970-2021) 进行准确的预测.
- 应用自回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自CAPMS (1970-2021) 的牛奶生产时间序列数据.
- 使用增强的迪基-富勒单元根测试,PACF和ACF进行了静止测试.
- 根据统计标准 (AIC,SC,R平方) 选择了最佳的ARIMA (1,1,3) 模型.
主要成果:
- 确定ARIMA (1, 1, 3) 模型是最适合预测的.
- 预计埃及的牛奶产量将增加.
- 预计牛奶产量将从2022年的6,152.606万增加到2025年的6,360.829万.
结论:
- 阿里马 (1,1,3) 模型为埃及的牛奶产量提供了可靠的预测.
- 该研究表明,未来几年牛奶供应将呈积极趋势.
- 调查结果支持为乳制品行业制定基于证据的政策.
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