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开发和内部验证一个风险预测模型,用于心动脉动脉样硬化在高尿血症人口的风险预测模型

Ximisinuer Tusongtuoheti^1,2, Guoqing Huang^1,2, Yushan Mao¹

¹Department of Endocrinology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo University, Ningbo, People's Republic of China.

Vascular health and risk management

|April 18, 2024

概括

这项研究在患有高尿血症 (HUA) 的个体中确定了动脉动脉样硬化 (CAS) 的关键风险因素. 一个新的预测模型有助于对这一群体的早期CAS检测.

科学领域:

心血管医学心血管医学
腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
代谢障碍代谢障碍代谢障碍

背景情况:

高尿路血 (HUA) 与心血管风险增加有关.
Carotid 动脉样硬化 (CAS) 是脑血管事件的重要指标.
确定HUA群体中CAS的特定风险因素对于预防策略至关重要.

研究的目的:

确定HUA患者中CAS的独立风险因素.
开发和验证CAS风险在这个特定的人群中的预测模型.
加强在HUA个体中早期识别和管理CAS.

主要方法:

对3579名HUA个人进行了回顾性分析.
用于CAS评估的冠状腺超声波.
多变量后勤回归和LASSO用于风险因素识别和模型构建.
使用ROC,校准曲线和决策曲线分析进行验证.

主要成果:

在HUA中确定了性别,年龄,平均红细胞体积和禁食血糖作为独立的CAS风险因素.
开发了一个风险预测模型,包括年龄,GGT,血清肌素,禁食血糖,T3和直接胆红素.
该模型表现出良好的区分能力 (AUC 0.891-0.901) 和良好的校准.

结论:

在HUA群体中开发了一种经过验证的CAS风险预测模型.
这种模型有助于早期识别高风险的个人.
这些发现有助于改善HUA患者的心血管风险管理.

关键词:

动脉动脉样硬化 - 动脉动脉样硬化超血症是什么意思独立的风险因素是独立的风险因素.这个名字是名ogramogram.预测模型预测模型

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