在各种干预场景下消除宫癌的预计时间:年龄-周期-队列宏模研究
Yi-Chu Chen1, Yun-Yuan Chen2, Shih-Yung Su3
1Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
JMIR public health and surveillance
|April 18, 2024
概括
台湾可以通过高查遵守或HPV疫苗接种,到2050年消除子宫癌. 建模表明,联合策略加速了消除,帮助全球宫癌控制工作.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生建模公共卫生建模
- 控制癌症 控制癌症
背景情况:
- 世界卫生组织的目标是全球消除宫癌.
- 建模研究对于预测长期结果和干预效果至关重要.
- 分析了台湾1997-2016年宫癌数据.
研究的目的:
- 预测台湾宫癌消除的时间表.
- 评估各种干预策略的影响.
- 为了利用宏观模拟框架进行政策分析.
主要方法:
- 采用了一个年龄周期队列宏模拟框架.
- 在建模中使用了可归因于人口的分数.
- 分析了不同情景 (查,疫苗接种) 下预计的未来发病率.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,台湾将消除宫癌,70%的查符合或90%的HPV疫苗接种覆盖率.
- 以细胞学为基础的查可以在2047年实现消除;以HPV为基础的查可以在2035年实现.
- 综合查和疫苗接种方法显示更早的消除时间表,基于HPV的查和疫苗接种可能在2033年前实现消除.
结论:
- 年龄周期队列宏模拟框架是用于宫癌控制政策分析的宝贵工具.
- 这些发现可以为其他高发病率国家的宫癌控制策略提供信息.
- 这项研究为全球消除宫癌的努力提供了基准.
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