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江大湾区的未来土地利用预测和优化战略与生态安全多场景模式相结合
Shengwang Bao1, Wanglai Cui1, Fan Yang1
1School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan, China.
PloS one
|April 18, 2024
概括
人类活动通过土地使用变化威胁到生态安全. 这项研究优化了江大湾区的土地利用以保护生态,预测了各种发展场景下的2035年的模式.
科学领域:
- 生态安全 生态安全
- 空间规划 空间规划 空间规划
- 土地使用变化建模
背景情况:
- 人类驱动的土地利用变化对区域生态安全构成重大威胁,特别是在快速城市化的湾区.
- 湾区不受控制的城市扩张对生态系统施加巨大压力,需要优化土地利用模式以实现长期可持续性.
研究的目的:
- 在江大湾区 (ZGBA) 从生态保护的角度探索未来的土地利用优化模式和空间结构.
- 预测到2035年在ZGBA的土地使用/覆盖变化 (LUCC) 在不同的发展情景下.
主要方法:
- 综合系统动力学 (SD) 模型用于定量预测和PLUS模型用于空间模拟.
- 建立了一个由生态安全多场景模式 (ESMP) 约束的土地使用/覆盖变化 (LUCC) 模拟框架.
- 评估了四个场景:商业常态 (BAU),生态保护优先 (PEP),平衡发展 (BD) 和城市发展优先 (PUD).
主要成果:
- 根据BAU,BD和PUD情景,预计到2035年,建筑用地将大幅增加,往往以牺牲森林用地为代价.
- 生态保护优先级 (PEP) 情景显示建筑用地增长迟缓,森林土地净增长 (11.27%),增强了景观连接性.
- 提出了具体的区域战略:杭州湾地区的BD和舟山,台州,温州和富阳县的PEP.
结论:
- 优化土地利用模式对于保持快速发展的海湾地区的生态安全至关重要.
- 开发的模拟框架为指导土地资源管理和空间规划提供了一个新的机制.
- 定制的发展战略,平衡经济增长与生态保护,对于江大湾区的可持续未来至关重要.
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