气候和土地利用变化对陆地碳储存的影响:在黄河流域 (1992-2050) 的多场景案例研究 (1992-2050)
Haoyang Wang1, Lishu Wu1, Yongsheng Yue2
1College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China.
The Science of the total environment
|April 21, 2024
概括
未来的土地利用和气候变化对黄河流域的陆地碳储存产生重大影响. 绿色发展途径对于实现双碳目标和优化土地利用至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 生态系统服务评估
背景情况:
- 社会经济发展和气候变化对陆地碳储存 (CS) 的评估和管理提出了挑战.
- 准确地预测未来的土地使用和CS对于区域土地使用决策和碳管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1992年到2050年,分析土地利用的时空演变及其对黄河流域 (YRB) 陆地碳储存 (CS) 的影响.
- 评估不同气候和土地利用情景对YRB中CS的影响.
主要方法:
- 综合框架结合了土地利用协调2 (LUH2) 数据集,补丁生成土地利用模拟 (PLUS) 模型和生态系统服务和权衡综合评估 (InVEST) 模型.
- 系统分析时空土地利用变化及其对CS的影响.
- 根据不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 进行场景建模.
主要成果:
- 林地拥有最高的CS,而建筑用地拥有最低的CS. 从1992年到2020年,农田的减少导致了CS减少74.04 Tg.
- 未来的情景 (2020-2050年) 显示了土地使用的重大转变:SSP1-2.6下的森林增加,SSP2-4.5下的未使用土地减少,SSP5-8.5.5下的建筑用地增加.
- 根据SSP1-2.6的情况,预计到2050年将达到最高的CS (8105.25 Tg),森林和建筑用地被确定为影响CS的关键因素. 西和山西显示出最大的碳排放量,而青海有很高的碳汇潜力.
结论:
- 未来的气候和土地利用变化对YRB的陆地CS产生重大影响.
- 绿色发展途径可以为实现双碳目标做出重大贡献.
- 该研究为YRB的低碳发展,土地利用优化和生态文明建设提供了科学基础.
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