在法医科学中对日志概率比率成本的概述 - 它在哪里使用,我们可以期望什么值?
Stijn van Lierop1, Daniel Ramos2, Marjan Sjerps1,3
1Netherlands Forensic Institute, Laan van Ypenburg 6, The Hague, 2497GB, the Netherlands.
Forensic science international. Synergy
|April 22, 2024
概括
对于自动化法医系统的日志概率比率成本 (C) 度量缺乏明确的解释,在科学领域和数据集之间有很大的差异. 为了可靠地比较概率比率系统,需要标准化的基准数据集.
科学领域:
- 法医科学 法医科学 法医科学
- 信息科学 信息科学 信息科学
- 统计分析 统计分析
背景情况:
- 概率比率 (LR) 越来越多地用于报告法医科学中的证据强度.
- 自动化LR系统正在获得引力,需要强大的性能指标.
- 逻辑概率比率成本 (C) 是一个常见的指标,但其解释不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查 (半自动化) LR系统中日志概率成本 (C) 的当前使用和解释.
- 识别影响C值的因素,并了解什么是"好"的C分数.
- 为评估LR系统的性能提供指导.
主要方法:
- 对136篇关于 (半自动化) LR系统的出版物的系统审查.
- 分析C指标的使用情况,报告的值,以及不同科学领域的影响因素.
- 随着时间的推移,研究C指标报告的趋势.
主要成果:
- 在各个学科中,C指标的使用幅度很大,特别是在DNA分析中缺席.
- 报告C的出版物比例保持稳定,尽管对自动化LR系统的研究增加了.
- C值没有明确的模式,并且高度依赖于具体的科学领域,分析类型和使用的数据集.
- 通过在研究中使用不同的数据集,阻碍了对LR系统的比较.
结论:
- 对"好的"C值的解释是主观的,并且取决于上下文.
- 缺乏标准化的数据集,阻碍了对LR系统的客观比较.
- 采用公共基准数据集对于推进自动化LR系统领域和确保可靠的性能评估至关重要.
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