降低了陆地生态系统的弹性
Ying Yao1, Yanxu Liu1, Fengyu Fu1
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Global change biology
|April 22, 2024
概括
在全球范围内,陆地生态系统的弹性正在下降,超过60%的生态系统显示趋势的转变. 气候变化,特别是在高排放场景下,对生态系统稳定构成重大未来风险.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 陆地生态系统的弹性对于干扰后的生态系统稳定性至关重要.
- 过去几十年的弹性变化和气候变化下的未来风险仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 确定陆地生态系统弹性的趋势.
- 分析弹性变化的驱动因素.
- 用CMIP6模型评估未来的弹性损失风险.
主要方法:
- 利用两个遥感植被指数来识别弹性趋势.
- 进行了归因分析,以确定弹性变化的驱动因素.
- 评估了使用不同共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下八个CMIP6模型的数据来评估未来的弹性损失风险.
主要成果:
- 超过60%的陆地生态系统从增加的弹性趋势转向下降的趋势.
- 抵抗力下降的驱动因素因地区而异:降水变化 (热带),植被覆盖率下降 (干旱地区),温度变化 (温带地区) 和平均温度上升 (寒冷地区).
- 与SSP126和SSP245相比,CMIP6预测显示SSP585下更严重的弹性下降,特别是在寒冷的地区.
结论:
- 陆地生态系统面临着持续的弹性退化.
- 迫切的气候变化缓解行动是必要的,以防止未来的生态系统的弹性损失.
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