系统连接的演变,以支持巴基斯坦的印度河盆地的粮食生产
Afreen Siddiqi1, James L Wescoat2, Noelle E Selin3
1Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.
概括
本研究引入了一种新的网络建模方法,以了解长期粮食生产的可持续性. 关键的网络结构和不断发展的中心节点对于在挑战中维持粮食系统至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 系统生态学 系统生态学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 粮食生产的可持续性面临着长期自然社会相互作用带来的复杂挑战.
- 传统的定量方法无法捕捉不断变化的系统动态,包括机构和知识网络.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种新的方法,结合定性框架和网络建模来研究系统结构和演变.
- 分析了超过75年的巴基斯坦旁遮普邦的水和粮食系统,以了解如何在各种中断的情况下维持粮食生产.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种综合方法,使用系统组件和相互作用的定性框架,通过知识和机构进行调解.
- 采用用定量指标的网络建模来分析五个不同的时期 (1947-2022) 的系统结构和演变.
- 评估了网络结构指标与可持续性结果之间的关系,并模拟了潜在的干预措施.
主要成果:
- 确定了食品水系统中关键节点的持续和不断变化的中心作用,对于可持续的粮食生产至关重要.
- 随着时间的推移,观察到连接系统组件的路径数量和长度的增加,与系统弹性相关.
- 模拟干预措施,如调节地下水抽水和逐步淘汰化石燃料,显示了网络路径的重大变化.
结论:
- 该研究强调了网络结构,节点中心性和连接性在维持长期粮食生产可持续性的重要性.
- 开发的方法提供了一种定量方法来评估系统动态和识别漏洞.
- 针对地下水使用和能源的政策干预可以影响网络路径和未来的粮食生产弹性.
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