根据SEER数据库和外部验证,Nomogram预测了淋巴结阴性肝细胞癌患者的生存率
Ziqiang Li1, Qingyong Hong, Kun Li
1Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Hubei Provincial Clinical Medicine Research Center for Minimally Invasive Diagnosis and Treatment of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
European journal of gastroenterology & hepatology
|April 23, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种名谱,用于预测肝细胞癌 (HCC) 患者没有淋巴结转移的癌症特异性生存率. 该模型显示出强大的预测准确性和对预后和治疗决策的临床实用性.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 肝胆道手术 肝胆道手术
- 癌症预后 癌症预后
背景情况:
- 淋巴结转移 (LNM) 状态在预测肝细胞癌 (HCC) 存活率方面存在争议.
- 在没有LNM的HCC患者中确定预后因素对于准确的生存预测至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在没有LNM的HCC患者中调查独立的预后因素.
- 在这个患者群体中开发和验证用于预测癌症特异性存活率 (CSS) 的名谱.
主要方法:
- 利用SEER数据库 (2010-2019) 进行培训和内部验证,并获得中南医院的外部验证.
- 使用单变量和多变量分析来确定预后因素.
- 构建了一个名图,并使用C指数,AUC,校准图和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 来评估其预测性能.
主要成果:
- 年龄,性别,骨/肺转移,AFP,T阶段,手术和化疗被确定为独立的预后因素.
- 诺米图实现了高预测准确度,C指数为0.746 (训练),0.740 (内部验证) 和0.777 (外部验证).
- 校准曲线和DCA表明了出色的预测性能和临床适用性.
结论:
- 开发了一种经过验证的名谱,用于预测没有LNM的HCC患者的CSS.
- 诺米图为临床医生提供了一种有价值的工具,以确定预后并指导治疗策略.
- 该模型展示了强大的预测性能和临床实用性.
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