探索保护区在减轻未来人类压力的表现
Qiqi Liu1,2, Xiaolan Tang3,4, Tian Hang5,6
1Department of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, People's Republic of China.
Ambio
|April 23, 2024
概括
保护区可以减少人类的压力,但未来的影响是不确定的. 这项研究预测到2035年,人类压力将增加,PA在1公里范围内显示有效性,尽管并非所有严格区域都是最有效的.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护科学 保护科学
- 环境管理环境管理
背景情况:
- 保护区对于减轻人类对生态系统的压力至关重要.
- 在减轻未来人类影响方面,PAs的长期有效性仍然不确定.
- 了解PA有效性的空间范围和可变性对于保护规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测未来的人类压力趋势,并评估保护区 (PA) 减轻这些压力的有效性.
- 分析不同的PA类别和缓冲区对人体压力的影响.
- 为有针对性的PA管理提供见解,特别是在城市环境中.
主要方法:
- 使用ConvLSTM模型预测未来的人类足迹.
- 用Theil-Sen中位数和Mann-Kendall测试分析人类压力趋势.
- 在缓冲区 (1-10公里) 内和在IUCN类别中使用线性回归评估PA缓解效应.
主要成果:
- 人类压力预计到2035年将增加11%,显示出两极分化的趋势.
- 保护区有效地减轻1公里缓冲区内的人类压力.
- 对于减轻人类压力的PA的有效性因IUCN类别而异,更严格的区域并不总是最有效的.
结论:
- 保护区在减少人类压力方面表现出局部有效性,特别是在1公里缓冲区内.
- 公共公共服务的有效性不仅仅取决于严格性;有针对性的管理至关重要.
- 结果支持PA的适应性管理策略,以优化减轻人类压力,特别是在不断扩大的城市地区.
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