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比利时2型糖尿病的未来负担:一个微模拟模型
Elly Mertens1, Junior Ocira1,2, Diana Sagastume1
1Unit of Non-Communicable Diseases, Department of Public Health, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.
预计到2030年,比利时的2型糖尿病负担将大幅增加,患病率和DALYs的显著增加. 迫切需要采取预防策略,重点关注低教育群体和社会经济地位较高的人群.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 2型糖尿病 (T2D) 在全球和比利时构成了重大且日益严重的公共卫生挑战.
- 了解未来的T2D负担和相关的社会人口差异对于有效的资源配置和干预计划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2030年比利时的2型糖尿病 (T2D) 的年度负担.
- 识别和预测比利时T2D发病率,流行率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 的社会人口差异.
主要方法:
- 采用离散事件过渡显微模拟模型,利用2018年比利时国家登记处数据对合成人口 (0-80岁) 进行了采用.
- 糖尿病风险因素和死亡率数据是从比利时健康访谈和检查调查以及重要统计数据中纳入的.
- 芬兰糖尿病风险评分预测了T2D的发展,风险因素每年通过从2018年到2030年的特定阶层过渡概率更新.
主要成果:
- 在比利时,预计在2018年至2030年期间,T2D流行率将增加32.8%,DALY率将增加19.3%.
- 虽然教育程度较低的子组始终显示T2D负担最高,但女性的发病率和流行率预计会大幅增加,特别是受过高等教育的佛兰德妇女.
- 预计T2D负担中现有的与年龄和教育相关的不平等现象将在所有比利时地区持续到2030年.
结论:
- 预计T2D负担的增加需要立即实施比利时的初级和二级预防策略.
- 预防措施应针对教育程度较低的群体,同时也应应对社会经济地位较高的人群,特别是女性中日益增长的T2D负担.
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