基于多个模型的CMIP6分析,利用SWAT模型对流域下水的潜在气候变化影响:巴基斯坦昆哈河流域的案例研究
Abdul Waheed1, Muhammad Hidayat Jamal2, Muhammad Faisal Javed3
1Department of Civil Engineerig, COMSATS Unversity Abbottabad, KPK, Pakistan.
Heliyon
|April 24, 2024
概括
气候变化将增加巴基斯坦昆哈河流域的降水和下水量,可能改善水源安全,但也增加洪水风险. 管理策略必须适应这些水文变化.
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 巴基斯坦的流域因气候变化而面临改变的水文制度,影响水质和数量.
- 现有的水资源管理策略需要对不断变化的降水和温度模式进行评估和适应.
- 昆哈河流域 (KRB) 是巴基斯坦北部面临这些水安全挑战的关键地区.
研究的目的:
- 评估人为气候变化对巴基斯坦北部昆哈河流域区域水源安全的影响.
- 用土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 在不同的气候场景下建模未来的下水变化.
- 为KRB的水资源和洪水控制提供适应性管理策略的信息.
主要方法:
- 使用土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 和流量持续时间曲线 (FDC) 分析进行水文建模.
- 在IPCC的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 排放场景 (SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5) 下,从九个通用循环模型 (GCM) 中使用偏差校正的输出.
- 使用相关系数 (R2),纳什-萨特克利夫效率 (NSE) 和百分比偏差 (PBIAS) 验证模型性能,在所有指标上达到>0.75.
主要成果:
- 该SWAT模型准确地模拟了KRB的每月和每日流量.
- 预计到2020-2099年,平均年降水量将增加3.08% (SSP2-4.5) 和5.86% (SSP5-8.5).
- 平均每日温度预计将上升2.08°C3.07°C (高) 和2.09°C3.39°C (低).
- 预计每年的排水量将增加5.47% (SSP2-4.5) 和7.60% (SSP5-8.5),峰值流量时间可能会发生变化.
结论:
- 增加的排水量表明,为未来的KRB社会经济发展提供足够的供水.
- 较高的降水量和下水量显著提高了洪水的风险,需要采取积极的洪水控制措施.
- 昆哈河流域适应性管理计划必须整合气候变化对水资源和洪水潜力的预计影响.
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