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风对新英格兰森林碳库存构成重大风险
Shersingh Joseph Tumber-Dávila1,2, Taylor Lucey3, Emery R Boose1
1Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, Massachusetts, USA.
Global change biology
|April 24, 2024
概括
风可以在新英格兰释放大量森林碳 (4.6%-9.4%),破坏气候缓解工作. 风速的增加加剧了破坏,威胁着森林作为一个持久的碳汇.
科学领域:
- 林业和气候科学 林业和气候科学
- 生态和干扰制度 生态和干扰制度
- 碳循环和减缓气候变化
背景情况:
- 基于自然的气候解决方案 (NCS) 在很大程度上依赖于森林碳储存和封存.
- 新英格兰广的森林对于区域和国家气候缓解政策至关重要.
- 像风这样的大规模干扰对森林碳库存构成重大风险,这是与火灾相比经常被忽视的因素.
研究的目的:
- 量化风对新英格兰森林碳库存的影响.
- 评估气候变化导致风强度和范围的增加所带来的风险.
- 评估风干扰后的长期碳排放动态.
主要方法:
- 利用HURRECON和EXPOS模型重建历史和预测的风影响.
- 分析了被砍伐的树木造成的潜在碳损失,并估计了随着时间的推移而产生的排放量.
- 模拟了风风速增加对损害严重程度和地理范围的影响.
主要成果:
- 一个风可以造成相当大的碳损失 (121250 MMTCO2e,4.6%-9.4%的地表碳),超过年度森林封存.
- 砍伐树木的碳排放延迟,净排放发生在19年后,90%的碳排放发生在100年后.
- 增加的风速 (8-16%) 大大增加了高严重性损害 (10.7倍至24.8倍),并将损害转移到内陆和北方.
结论:
- 风对新英格兰森林的完整性来说是一个主要的,被低估的威胁,因为它们是碳汇.
- 由于气候变化,风强度的预计增加加剧了森林碳库存的风险.
- 准确评估干扰风险对于依赖森林NCS的有效气候减缓战略至关重要.
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