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使用可解释的深度学习模型来预测河流悬浮沉积物负载
Zeinab Mohammadi-Raigani1, Hamid Gholami2, Aliakbar Mohamadifar1
1Department of Natural Resources Engineering, University of Hormozgan, Bandar‑Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|April 24, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了可解释的深度学习模型,以预测河流悬浮沉积物负载 (SSL). 密集的深度神经网络 (DDNN) 显示出卓越的性能,河流排放被确定为影响SSL预测的关键因素.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 准确预测河流悬浮沉积物负载 (SSL) 对流域水文管理至关重要.
- 传统的方法经常与SSL动态的复杂性和可变性作斗争.
- 深度学习 (DL) 提供了改进SSL预测的潜力,但往往缺乏可解释性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估可解释的深度学习模型,用于日常SSL预测.
- 为了比较SSL估计的各种DL架构 (DDNN,LSTM,GRU,RNN) 的性能.
- 使用Shapley增量解释 (SHAP) 来理解驱动SSL预测的因素.
主要方法:
- 研究了四种深度学习模型:密集的深度神经网络 (DDNN),长期短期记忆 (LSTM),门式循环单元 (GRU) 和简单的循环神经网络 (RNN).
- 利用塔莱根河流域的每日河流排放和降雨数据进行模型培训和验证.
- 应用了沙普利增量解释 (SHAP) 技术来解释DL模型的预测.
主要成果:
- 密集深度神经网络 (DDNN) 显示出最高的预测准确度 (R2 = 0.96,RMSE = 333.46),表现优于LSTM,GRU和简单的RNN模型.
- SHAP分析显示,河流排放是影响SSL预测的最重要因素.
- 为了提高DL模型性能,确定了最佳参数设置 (优化算法,最大代,批量大小).
结论:
- 深度学习模型,特别是DDNN,显示出在河流系统中准确SSL预测的巨大潜力.
- 像SHAP这样的可解释AI技术对于理解DL模型在环境应用中的"黑子"性质是有价值的.
- 建议对流域管理中的DL模型的解释技术进行进一步的研究.
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