通过MCDM和机器学习评估印度东海岸的地震风险
Abhishek K Rai1, Sukanta Malakar2, Susmita Goswami2
1Centre for Ocean, River, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, 721302, West Bengal, India. abhishek@coral.iitkgp.ac.in.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|April 24, 2024
概括
这项研究整合了多标准决策模型和人工神经网络,以绘制印度东部地震风险的地图. 结果显示,5%的地区和11%的人口面临高地震风险,有助于减轻灾害的规划.
科学领域:
- 地质科学和环境科学 地球科学和环境科学
- 地缘空间技术和风险评估
- 人工智能在灾害管理中的应用
背景情况:
- 像地震这样的自然灾害对城市人口和基础设施构成重大威胁.
- 地缘空间技术的进步使得自然危险减轻的风险映射成为可能.
- 评估地震风险对于制定有效的灾害管理战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 整合多标准决策 (MCDM) 模型与人工神经网络 (ANN) 进行地震风险评估.
- 评估印度东部海岸的地震脆弱性和应对能力.
- 开发一个全面的地震风险评估框架,用于减轻灾害.
主要方法:
- 采用分析层次流程 (AHP) 和通过相互关联的标准重要性 (CRITIC) 来评估脆弱性和应对能力.
- 利用人工神经网络 (ANN) 来绘制地震概率图,使用AHP-CRITIC输出进行训练.
- 关于危险,脆弱性和应对能力的综合空间数据,以评估整体地震风险.
主要成果:
- 大约5%的研究区域被确定为高地震风险地区.
- 超过11%的人口受到地震诱导危害的高风险.
- 接收器操作特征 (ROC) 曲线分析得出曲线下的面积 (AUC) 为0.85,表明可靠的模型性能.
结论:
- 综合的AHP-CRITIC和ANN方法为地震风险评估提供了一种可靠的方法.
- 调查结果强调印度东部沿海地区存在重大地震风险,影响地区和人口.
- 该研究为参与灾害规划和减缓工作的机构提供了宝贵的见解.
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