高填充堤防的故障概率分析,考虑到多种不确定性和相关的故障模式
Ruirui Sun1, Yimingjiang Reheman2, Xiaoling Wang3
1Faculty of Architecture, Civil and Transportation Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, 100 Pingleyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100124, China. sunrr@bjut.edu.cn.
Scientific reports
|April 24, 2024
概括
本研究提出了一种新方法,通过考虑复杂的不确定性和故障模式相互作用来评估高填充堤防故障风险. 忽视这些因素会导致高估堤失效的概率.
科学领域:
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
- 风险评估 风险评估
- 地质技术工程 地质技术工程
背景情况:
- 目前的堤防故障概率模型往往过于简化了不确定性和故障模式的相关性,限制了它们的实际应用.
- 关键基础设施中的高填充堤,如远距离输水项目,需要强大的风险评估方法.
- 了解随机灰色模糊不确定性的相互作用对于准确的故障预测至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种方法来构建高填充堤防的故障概率模型.
- 纳入不确定性和故障模式的识别和分析.
- 通过考虑复杂的相互作用来提高堤防失效概率评估的准确性.
主要方法:
- 随机灰色模糊不确定性的量化.
- 使用结合的概率和非概率方法对覆盖,不稳定性和泄漏故障模式的概率分析.
- 在MATLAB中开发和实施二进制Copula函数方法,以建模故障模式之间的非线性相互作用.
主要成果:
- 当不确定性 (随机性,模糊性,灰度) 被忽视时,单个模式的失败概率被高估了.
- 当不考虑故障模式相关性时,杆漏洞概率被高估了,特别是在对齐的漏和不稳定概率时.
- 开发的方法提供了一个更现实的评估高填充堤防故障概率.
结论:
- 准确的高填充堤防风险评估需要考虑复杂的不确定性和非线性故障模式相互作用.
- 忽视参数不确定性和故障模式相关性导致严重高估故障概率.
- 拟议的基于Copula的方法为评估关键水基础设施安全提供了更可靠的方法.
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