基于炎症生物标志物的非恶性门静脉血栓与肝硬化相关的预测模型
Guo-Le Nie1, Jun Yan2, Ying Li2
1The First School of Clinical Medicine, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu Province, China.
World journal of gastrointestinal oncology
|April 25, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种名图和网络计算器,用于预测肝硬化患者的门静脉血栓形成 (PVT). 该工具准确地识别高风险个体,帮助早期诊断和治疗这种常见的并发症.
科学领域:
- 肝病学和胃肠病学 肝病学和胃肠学
- 医学诊断 医学诊断 医学诊断
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 门静脉血栓塞 (PVT) 是肝硬化的一种严重并发症,对公共卫生构成重大挑战.
- 有效预测PVT对于及时诊断和治疗肝硬化患者至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个名谱和网络计算器,用于预测肝硬化患者的PVT.
- 确定与此群体PVT发生相关的关键临床指标.
主要方法:
- 在572名肝硬化患者 (286名PVT患者,286名没有PVT患者) 的回顾性分析中,使用倾向性得分匹配.
- 通过LASSO和多变量逻辑回归分析识别PVT风险因素.
- 使用ROC曲线,校准曲线和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 构建和验证预测性名ogram.
主要成果:
- 确定了九个独立的PVT风险因素:病因,,胃食道静脉,血小板数,D-二次数,门静脉直径,门静脉速度,AST/中性粒细胞比率指数和血小板/淋巴细胞比率.
- 诺米图表表现出了出色的预测性能,AUC为0.821 (训练) 和0.829 (测试).
- 诺米图表显示出良好的临床效用,最佳切断值灵敏度为0.822和特异性为0.706.
结论:
- 已成功开发了一种可用于PVT预测肝硬化患者的经过验证的nomogram和网络计算器.
- 该工具有助于快速识别高风险的PVT群体,支持临床决策.
- 诺莫格拉姆有助于早期检测和管理肝硬化时的门静脉血栓症.
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