一个基于空间特征和陆地生态系统碳储存演变的合模型:汉中市的一个案例研究
Bing Yuan1, Kang Hou2, Yaxin Li1
1School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Xi'an Polytechnic University, Xi'an, 710048, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|April 25, 2024
概括
由于土地使用的变化,生态系统碳储存 (ECS) 从1990年至2020年减少. 未来的预测显示了ECS的增长,特别是在生态保护场景下,强调了需要本地化气候缓解战略的需要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 生态系统的碳储存 (ECS) 对于缓解全球变暖至关重要.
- 中国的碳中和目标需要了解土地利用对ECS的影响.
- 需要准确的模型来分析ECS的时空动态.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用"地理分析 - 进化分析 - 预测 (GEP) "模型来评估ECS.
- 分析ECS的空间特征和进化模式.
- 在各种发展场景下预测未来的ECS分布.
主要方法:
- 结合地理分析,进化分析和预测 (GEP) 模型.
- 分析ECS的时间空间变化.
- 自然发展 (NDS) 和生态保护 (EPS) 的场景建模.
主要成果:
- 在1990年至2020年期间,与土地利用转让相关的ECS减少了1.17 × 10^6.
- 根据NDS,ECS预计将增加1.15 × 10^6 (2030年) 和1.44 × 10^6 (2060年).
- 预计在EPS下,ECS将大幅增加3.06 × 10^6t (2030年) 和4.44 × 10^6t (2060年),EPS的增幅更大.
结论:
- 土地利用变化对ECS趋势产生重大影响.
- 生态保护场景为ECS增强提供了更大的潜力.
- GEP模型为本地气候减缓政策提供了宝贵的见解.
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