加速朝着2030年被忽视的热带疾病目标的进步:量化建模如何支持程序决策?
Andreia Vasconcelos1,2, Jonathan D King3, Cláudio Nunes-Alves1
1Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford, United Kingdom.
概括
数学建模可以指导被忽视的热带疾病 (NTD) 计划面临挫折. 优先考虑建模问题有助于决策者加快实现2030年NTD目标的进展.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
背景情况:
- 在过去十年中,在控制被忽视的热带疾病 (NTDs) 方面取得了重大进展.
- 最近的挫折,特别是COVID-19流行病造成的服务中断,影响了NTD计划.
- 2021-2030年NTD路线图要求制定有效的战略,以实现消除和根除目标.
研究的目的:
- 确定与国家和地方NTD计划相关的优先数学建模问题.
- 探索定量建模如何支持NTD干预的决策.
- 为了使建模工作与世卫组织NTD路线图的目标保持一致.
主要方法:
- 在2022年9月召开世界卫生组织利益相关者会议.
- 收集了参与设计,实施和评估NTD计划的专家的意见.
- 在各种NTD中合成和分析了优先级建模问题.
主要成果:
- 确定了在NTD控制中的数学建模的常见主题和关键问题.
- 强调了建模的潜力,以告知干预选择和资源分配.
- 证明了需要建模来应对NTD程序所面临的挑战.
结论:
- 数学建模对于克服挫折和加速实现2030年NTD目标的进展至关重要.
- 优先考虑当地相关的建模问题可以提高NTD干预的有效性.
- 定量建模为公共卫生中的程序决策提供了有价值的支持.
相关概念视频
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