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1900年至2050年陆地生物多样性和生态系统服务的全球趋势和情景
Henrique M Pereira1,2,3, Inês S Martins1,2,4, Isabel M D Rosa1,2,5
1German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig 04103, Germany.
概括
全球生物多样性在20世纪下降了2-11%,生态系统服务发生了转变. 可持续政策可以减轻土地利用的影响,但气候变化带来越来越多的生物多样性风险,需要采取政策行动.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 生态学
- 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 全球生物多样性在整个20世纪都面临重大压力.
- 包括提供和监管服务在内的生态系统服务发生了重大变化.
- 土地利用和气候变化是这些生态转变的主要驱动因素.
研究的目的:
- 评估生物多样性和生态系统服务的历史趋势和未来情景.
- 评估土地使用和气候变化对生态指标的影响.
- 为保护和可持续发展目标制定政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 对历史重建和未来场景进行广泛的模型对比.
- 对各种生物多样性指标和生态系统服务趋势的分析.
- 根据不同的排放和可持续性路径评估政策影响.
主要成果:
- 在20世纪,全球生物多样性减少了2-11%.
- 提供生态系统服务显著增加,而监管服务则有所下降.
- 未来的可持续性政策显示出减轻土地利用影响的潜力,但气候变化对生物多样性的影响预计将恶化.
结论:
- 为了实现"生物多样性公约"的目标,必须采取新的政策努力.
- 应对气候变化的影响对于未来的生物多样性保护至关重要.
- 有效的生态系统管理需要考虑土地利用和气候变化的综合战略.
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