导航双碳目标的道路:了解能源转型福利绩效的驱动力
Qinyang Li1, Li Li1, Yalin Lei1
1School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100083, China.
Journal of environmental management
|April 25, 2024
概括
由于政府政策和技术创新,中国的能源转型福利表现 (ETWP) 显著改善. 分析揭示了明显的省区差异,突出了为实现碳目标而制定定制战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 能源政策 能源政策
背景情况:
- 中国致力于实现"双碳"目标,需要了解能源转型在促进人类福祉和可持续发展方面的效率.
- 能源转型福利绩效 (ETWP) 量化了能源转型 (ET) 在提高人类福祉方面的有效性.
- 确定ETWP的驱动因素对于实现国家气候目标和可持续发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2006年至2022年中国ETWP的时间趋势和驱动力.
- 预测2023年至2030年中国31个省份未来的ETWP.
- 为优化ETWP和实现碳减排目标提供政策建议.
主要方法:
- 逻辑平均划分指数 (LMDI) 模型用于分解分析.
- 固定面板回归模型用于评估影响因素.
- 灰色关系分析 (GRA) 模型用于分析相互关系.
- 分析涵盖了2006年至2022年的数据,预测延长到2030年.
主要成果:
- ETWP展现了两个不同的增长阶段:2006-2014年和2015-2022年.
- 政府政策 (能源和环境合理化) 和技术创新能力被确定为ETWP改进的基本驱动力.
- 在中国各省份观察到ETWP的显著空间和时间变化.
结论:
- 能源转型应优先考虑生态环境改善和资源利用效率.
- 科学和技术创新,以及支持性政策,是加强ETWP的关键.
- 建议制定量身定制的能源转型政策,考虑到当地条件和能源结构的战略变化.
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