季节性可预测性下降可能会破坏古典玛雅社会的稳定
Tobias Braun1, Sebastian F M Breitenbach2, Vanessa Skiba1
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03 D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
概括
经典的玛雅文明面临崩的原因是不可预测的降雨和严重的干旱,而不仅仅是长时间的干旱时期. 适应不断变化的气候模式对于社会稳定至关重要.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 考古学的考古学
- 玛雅文明研究 玛雅文明研究
背景情况:
- 经典的玛雅社会严重依赖可预测的季节性降雨来获得农业余.
- 气候变化对古玛雅人 (公元750年-950年) 崩的影响仍然是争论的主题.
- 了解水气候变化是解释社会性和崩的关键.
研究的目的:
- 为了分析过去1600年的季节性降雨模式,使用一个洞穴记录.
- 调查水气候变化与古玛雅机构解体之间的关系.
- 评估降雨可预测性的作用,而不仅仅是干旱,在玛雅社会衰落中的作用.
主要方法:
- 来自贝利兹的约克巴卢姆洞穴的洞穴记录的精确日期.
- 在季节性规模上分析当地水气候变化.
- 古气候数据与玛雅社会政治变化的历史时期的相关性.
主要成果:
- 公元700年至800年间,降雨预测能力显著下降,严重干旱发生.
- 这一时期与玛雅社会政治制度的最初解体和人口减少相吻合.
- 季节性降雨的可预测性降低,可能与热带融合区有关,加剧了社会不稳定.
结论:
- 经典玛雅社会无法适应不稳定的降雨动态,这导致了它们的逐渐解体.
- 社会崩很可能是由严重干旱和降雨预测能力下降的结合驱动的.
- 重新思考玛雅人的崩需要考虑从一年到一年的气候变化以及长期干旱事件的影响.
相关概念视频
Global Climate Change
24.3K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.3K
What is Climate?
18.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.4K
Threats to Biodiversity
22.3K
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
22.3K
Conservation of Declining Populations
9.6K
Conservation of declining population focuses on ways of detecting, diagnosing, and halting a population decline. The approach uses methods to prevent populations from going extinct.
9.6K
Ecological Disturbance
17.1K
An ecological disturbance is a temporary disruption in the environment resulting from abiotic, biotic, or anthropogenic factors, causing a pronounced change in an ecosystem. The impact of an ecological disturbance, which can depend on its intensity, frequency, and spatial distribution, plays a significant role in shaping the species diversity within the ecosystem.
17.1K
What is Weather?
18.2K
Overview
18.2K


