农作物收获的卫星预测可以触发跨半球的生产反应,并改善全球粮食安全
Tetsuji Tanaka1,2, Laixiang Sun2,3, Inbal Becker-Reshef2
1Department of Economics, Meiji Gakuin University, Tokyo, Japan.
概括
及时对农作物收获的卫星预测可以稳定全球粮食供应. 通过预测短缺或余,可以在相反的半球调整产量,减轻价格波动并改善粮食安全.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 全球粮食安全受到气候变化和地区冲突的威胁,导致无法预测的作物生产和价格波动.
- 主要出口国家的波动显著影响进口国家的食品价格和消费.
研究的目的:
- 为了证明及时的农作物收获卫星预测如何稳定全球粮食供应.
- 证明积极的生产调整可以抵消短期波动并减轻价格冲击.
主要方法:
- 利用卫星数据对主要出口地区的作物进行操作监测.
- 分析北半球和南半球之间作物日历的季节性滞后.
- 模拟预测对小麦和大豆等关键商品价格波动的影响.
主要成果:
- 卫星预测可以将小麦的全国价格波动减少1.1至12.5个百分点.
- 预测可以扭转进口国家的价格冲击,正如巴西大豆短缺的情况所示.
- 该研究量化了基于卫星的预测在稳定食品市场方面的潜力.
结论:
- 利用半球之间的季节性作物日历差异是关键.
- 运营卫星作物监测提供了一个可行的机制,以加强全球粮食安全.
- 在卫星数据的指导下,积极调整粮食生产,可以缓冲全球供应中断.
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