洪水产生过程的转变加剧了欧洲地区洪水异常情况
Larisa Tarasova1, David Lun2, Ralf Merz1,3
1Department Catchment Hydrology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Halle (Saale), Germany.
概括
欧洲的河流洪水异常是由不断变化的洪水产生过程驱动的,而不仅仅是极端的降雨. 土壤湿度条件的变化显著影响洪水的频率和强度,影响气候适应策略.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 河流洪水异常,以洪水丰富或缺乏洪水的时期为特征,在洪水风险评估中引入了偏见.
- 这些偏见可以降低气候适应措施的效率.
- 最近的观测证实了欧洲的洪水异常,但其根本原因仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查欧洲地区洪水异常的主要驱动因素.
- 为了区分变化的洪水产生过程与极端降雨转移的贡献.
- 为未来的洪水风险估计和气候适应战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 分析了从1960年到2010年的流动和气候观测.
- 评估洪水产生过程中的转变,特别是干土上降雨和湿土上降雨事件之间的过渡.
- 大西洋和地中海地区洪水异常驱动因素的区域比较.
主要成果:
- 发现洪水产生过程的变化对区域洪水异常的影响比极端降雨的变化更大.
- 在大西洋地区,5%的转向降雨湿地事件增加了洪水丰富的时期.
- 地中海地区的相反转变导致了洪水较少的时期,但增加了极端单一洪水的可能性.
结论:
- 变化的洪水产生过程是欧洲洪水异常的关键驱动因素.
- 这些过程的变化受到土壤水分等因素的影响,影响洪水的频率和强度.
- 未来气候变暖可能会加剧这些洪水异常,需要在洪水管理和风险评估中考虑它们.
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