自1950年以来,美国高潮洪水加快的原因
Qiang Sun1, Sönke Dangendorf1, Thomas Wahl2
1Department of River-Coastal Science and Engineering, Tulane University, 627 Lindy Claiborne Boggs Center, 6823 St. Charles Avenue, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA.
概括
高潮洪水 (HTF) 在美国海岸正在增加. 虽然相对平均海平面 (RMSL) 的上升解释了大多数HTF天,但像陆地运动和固态海平面 (SDSL) 这样的局部因素也起着关键作用.
科学领域:
- 沿海科学 沿海科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
背景情况:
- 高潮洪水 (HTF) 事件在美国海岸线迅速增加.
- 相对平均海平面 (RMSL) 的上升被认为是HTF的主要驱动因素.
- 将HTF增加归因于特定的海平面成分仍然不完整.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用当地海平面预算,将过去高潮洪水 (HTF) 日的变化归因于相对平均海平面 (RMSL) 和其组成部分.
- 调查洪水值和水位特征对HTF变化的空间模式的影响.
- 为了量化近期海平面固态加速 (SDSL) 对HTF频率的影响.
主要方法:
- 对当地海平面预算的分析,以分离对HTF的贡献.
- 评估RMSL在长期HTF增长中的作用.
- 评估垂直陆地运动和SDSL对不同地区和时间尺度的HTF频率的影响.
主要成果:
- 在当地,RMSL的增加占HTF日长期增加的84%以上.
- 高温变压变化的空间变化受洪水值和水位特征的影响.
- 垂直陆地运动是长期HTF增长的一个主要因素,特别是在东北地区.
- 在较短的时间表和其他地区,SDSL对HTF更为重要.
- 墨西哥湾的SDSL加速在过去十年中导致HTF频率增加了220%.
结论:
- 当地海平面预算为高潮洪水的驱动因素提供了关键的见解.
- 相对平均海平面上升和当地因素都对HTF趋势产生重大影响.
- 了解海平面成分的区域差异对于预测未来的洪水风险至关重要.
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