相关实验视频
Updated: Jun 27, 2025
13:44
Sealable Femtoliter Chamber Arrays for Cell-free Biology
Published on: March 11, 2015
9.5K
流行病建模中的内在随机性超出了统计不确定性.
Matthew J Penn1, Daniel J Laydon2, Joseph Penn1
1University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Communications physics
|April 26, 2024
概括
预测传染病风险需要考虑 aleatoric (随机性) 和 epistemic (不完美的知识) 不确定性. 忽视随机性大大低估了潜在的流行病风险,误导了决策者.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 目前的传染病风险框架主要解决认识体系的不确定性 (不完美的知识).
- 在流行病中,因单一爆发的观察而导致的异构不确定性 (内在的随机性) 往往无法量化.
- 这种差距限制了准确的风险评估和政策决策.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个框架,以描述传染病爆发中的 aleatoric 和 epistemic 不确定性.
- 为了明确地将 aleatoric 变异分解为机械组件并分析其时间动态.
- 为了突出低估风险,当 aleatoric 不确定性被忽视.
主要方法:
- 利用一个时间变化的一般分支过程模型.
- 将 aleatoric 变异分解为有助于流行病不确定性的特定机械因素.
- 分析了随着时间的推移,预测不确定性的动态增长.
主要成果:
- 在没有取代事件或过度分散的后代分布的情况下,可能会出现大量的爆发不确定性.
- 预测的不确定性以动态和快速的方式增加.
- 仅仅基于认识系统不确定性的预测导致了对真正的流行病风险的严重低估.
结论:
- 没有纳入 aleatoric 不确定性,就会对潜在的传染病风险进行误导性的低估.
- 精确的流行风险管理需要量化 aleatoric 和 epistemic 不确定性.
- 拟议的方法通过使用历史流行病数据来证明低估的程度.
相关概念视频
00:59Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error
681
An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
681
01:04Random Error
880
Random or indeterminate errors originate from various uncontrollable variables, such as variations in environmental conditions, instrument imperfections, or the inherent variability of the phenomena being measured. Usually, these errors cannot be predicted, estimated, or characterized because their direction and magnitude often vary in magnitude and direction even during consecutive measurements. As a result, they are difficult to eliminate. However, the aggregate effect of these errors can be...
880
01:18Steps in Outbreak Investigation
124
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
124
01:09Random Variables
11.7K
A random variable is a single numerical value that indicates the outcome of a procedure. The concept of random variables is fundamental to the probability theory and was introduced by a Russian mathematician, Pafnuty Chebyshev, in the mid-nineteenth century.
Uppercase letters such as X or Y denote a random variable. Lowercase letters like x or y denote the value of a random variable. If X is a random variable, then X is written in words, and x is given as a number.
For example, let X = the...
Uppercase letters such as X or Y denote a random variable. Lowercase letters like x or y denote the value of a random variable. If X is a random variable, then X is written in words, and x is given as a number.
For example, let X = the...
11.7K
01:21Causality in Epidemiology
397
Causality or causation is a fundamental concept in epidemiology, vital for understanding the relationships between various factors and health outcomes. Despite its importance, there's no single, universally accepted definition of causality within the discipline. Drawing from a systematic review, causality in epidemiology encompasses several definitions, including production, necessary and sufficient, sufficient-component, counterfactual, and probabilistic models. Each has its strengths and...
397
01:10Propagation of Uncertainty from Systematic Error
517
The atomic mass of an element varies due to the relative ratio of its isotopes. A sample's relative proportion of oxygen isotopes influences its average atomic mass. For instance, if we were to measure the atomic mass of oxygen from a sample, the mass would be a weighted average of the isotopic masses of oxygen in that sample. Since a single sample is not likely to perfectly reflect the true atomic mass of oxygen for all the molecules of oxygen on Earth, the mass we obtain from this...
517