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气候变化下的超大容量利基动力学和Phenacoccus solenopsis的全球入侵风险

Shaopeng Cui^1,2, Huisheng Zhang¹, Lirui Liu¹

¹College of Forestry, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030801, China.

|April 26, 2024

概括

棉花虫 (Phenacoccus solenopsis) 正在全球范围内扩大其息地,主要是通过利基扩张而不是适应. 未来的气候变化将增加适合息地,增加新地区的入侵风险.

科学领域:

侵袭性生物学侵袭性生物学
生态生态学生态生态学
生物地理学是生物地理学.

背景情况:

棉花虫 (Phenacoccus solenopsis) 是一个重要的全球隔离害虫,威胁着农业和生物安全.
了解利基动态和入侵风险对于管理这种入侵物种至关重要.
利基保护主义假设是侵入性生物学中争论的一个关键领域.

研究的目的:

量化Phenacoccus solenopsis在本地和入侵范围中的气候利基.
评估Phenacoccus solenopsis中的利基保护主义和扩张.
在当前和未来的气候条件下预测Phenacoccus solenopsis的全球入侵风险.

主要方法:

使用了n维超体积分析,使用了462个发生点和19个生物气候变量.
量化了本地和入侵范围之间的多维气候利基差异.
在气候变化场景下,优化了MaxEnt模型参数,用于全球入侵风险预测.

主要成果:

侵入性范围比本地范围显示出更大的利基超量,其中99.45%归因于利基扩张.
利基市场的扩张在大洋洲和欧亚大陆最为明显.
模型性能强 (AUC=0.83,TSS=0.62),表明适合息地增加,并在未来气候下向北扩散.

结论:

Phenacoccus solenopsis展示了显著的利基扩张,挑战了利基保守主义.
预计未来的气候变化将增加适合息地,并向北扩大入侵风险.
这些发现支持北非,中国北部,地中海地区和欧洲北部的Phenacoccus solenopsis早期预警系统和控制策略.

关键词:

马克森特模型的模型.菲纳科科克斯 (Phenacoccus solenopsis) 是一种植物.气候变化气候变化气候变化超大批量的利基市场.利基转移转移利基转移转移

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