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中国集体森林的碳捕获成本和空间溢出效应

Yifan Zhou¹, Caixia Xue², Shuohua Liu¹

¹College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Xian, 710000, China.

Carbon balance and management

|April 26, 2024

概括

中国的集体森林碳封存成本正在上升,区域差异很大. 未来的政策应该针对成本较低的地区,以最大限度地减少森林的碳汇,并支持可持续的林业.

科学领域:

林业科学林业科学
环境经济学环境经济学
气候变化缓解缓解气候变化缓解

背景情况:

森林是减轻全球气候变化和提供生态系统服务至关重要的碳汇.
中国的集体森林占其森林资源的很大一部分,使得它们的碳捕获能力对国家和全球气候努力至关重要.
评估这些森林的碳捕获成本,为气候变化缓解政策和措施提供了信息.

研究的目的:

评估中国集体森林碳封存成本的历史趋势和空间分布.
用先进的建模技术预测未来的碳捕获成本.
确定影响这些成本的因素及其空间溢出效应.

主要方法:

对过去30年碳捕获成本的历史数据进行分析.
长短期内存 (LSTM) 网络的应用,用于未来的成本预测.
空间相关性分析,以了解各种经济和生态因素的影响.

主要成果:

在中国的集体森林中,碳封存成本在过去三十年中呈现出一致的上升趋势.
在南部,西南部和东北部地区 (不包括沿海省份) 发现成本较低.
据LSTM预测,到2030年,成本可能达到125元/;存在显著的空间相关性,受劳动力成本和土地机会成本等因素的影响.

结论:

在集体森林碳封存成本的空间分布上存在显著的区域差异.
未来成本的增加趋势需要积极的政策干预.
针对低成本地区的有针对性的经济政策和管理策略对于优化碳捕获潜力和促进可持续林业至关重要.

关键词:

碳中和是碳中和的一种方式.碳封存成本碳封存成本集体森林是集体森林.深度神经网络是一个神经网络.空间溢出影响

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