技术风险并不是世界末日
1Department of Science and Technology Studies, University College London, London, UK. j.stilgoe@ucl.ac.uk.
概括
理论物理计算表明, 核武器的全球毁灭的可能性几乎为零. 在评估极端风险时, 奥本海默强调了理论的局限性.
科学领域:
- 理论物理
- 核武科学
- 风险评估
背景情况:
- 发展核武器需要复杂的理论计算.
- 评估这些武器的最终后果带来了前所未有的挑战.
- 在曼哈顿项目期间, 伦理和生存风险是一个重大问题.
研究的目的:
- 探索与部署核武器相关的全球破坏的理论概率.
- 为了说明基于有限数据的科学预测中固有的不确定性.
主要方法:
- 使用理论物理原理来估计风险.
- 研究了极端场景中的预测模型的局限性.
主要成果:
- 理论计算表明全球灭绝的可能性接近于零.
- 这项研究强调了理论预测与现实世界的不确定性之间的差距.
结论:
- 虽然理论认为这种可能性很低,
- 强调需要超越理论保证的谨慎和强有力的安全措施.
相关概念视频
Issues And Trends In Healthcare Delivery System
5.6K
The issues and trends in healthcare delivery are constantly changing. The COVID-19 pandemic is one recent issue that wreaked havoc on healthcare systems, causing a shortage of healthcare workers, high demand for medicines and supplies, and increased medical expenditure due to a lack of insurance. Other issues include rising healthcare costs and care fragmentation.
Cost Containment
Payment for healthcare services has historically promoted adoption of costly and often unnecessary or inefficient...
Cost Containment
Payment for healthcare services has historically promoted adoption of costly and often unnecessary or inefficient...
5.6K
Bullying
8.4K
A modern form of aggression is bullying. As you learn in your study of child development, socializing and playing with other children is beneficial for children’s psychological development. However, as you may have experienced as a child, not all play behavior has positive outcomes. Some children are aggressive and want to play roughly. Other children are selfish and do not want to share toys. One form of negative social interactions among children that has become a national concern is...
8.4K
Errors in Global Positioning System
44
Global Positioning System (GPS) technology has revolutionized navigation and positioning, but its accuracy is often compromised by various errors. These errors, stemming from environmental, satellite, and receiver-related factors, require careful mitigation to ensure reliable performance across applications.Atmospheric ErrorsGPS signals travel through the Earth’s ionosphere and troposphere, introducing delays which affect accuracy. The ionosphere is strongly influenced by charged particles,...
44
Threats to Biodiversity
22.3K
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
22.3K
CRISPR
50.8K
Genome editing technologies allow scientists to modify an organism’s DNA via the addition, removal, or rearrangement of genetic material at specific genomic locations. These types of techniques could potentially be used to cure genetic disorders such as hemophilia and sickle cell anemia. One popular and widely used DNA-editing research tool that could lead to safe and effective cures for genetic disorders is the CRISPR-Cas9 system. CRISPR-Cas9 stands for Clustered Regularly Interspaced...
50.8K
Stereotype Threat and Self-fulfilling Prophecies
37.6K
When we hold a stereotype about a person, we have expectations that he or she will fulfill that stereotype. A self-fulfilling prophecy is an expectation held by a person that alters his or her behavior in a way that tends to make it true. When we hold stereotypes about a person, we tend to treat the person according to our expectations. This treatment can influence the person to act according to our stereotypic expectations, thus confirming our stereotypic beliefs. Research by Rosenthal and...
37.6K


