模拟实时冲突率中的时间相关性和异质性,使用贝叶斯托比特模型对信号交叉点进行模拟
Yanyong Guo1, Tarek Sayed2, Pan Liu1
1School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|April 26, 2024
概括
这项研究模拟了实时交通冲突,考虑了时间相关性和未观察到的地点差异. 先进的模型表明,交通量,冲击波和队列长度显著影响交叉路口的安全率.
科学领域:
- 交通工程是交通工程.
- 运输安全运输安全
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 实时交通冲突为交叉路口安全动态提供了宝贵的见解.
- 观察到的交通冲突数据经常显示出时间相关性和未观察到的网站异质性,使分析复杂化.
- 现有的模型可能无法充分捕捉这些复杂的数据特征.
研究的目的:
- 为实时交通冲突率开发先进的统计模型.
- 同时解决交通冲突数据中的时间相关性和未观察到的异质性.
- 提高交叉路口安全评估的准确性和可靠性.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自六个信号交叉点的信号周期级交通数据.
- 在贝叶斯框架内开发和比较了三种托比特模型:常规,时间托比特 (T-Tobit) 和时间分组随机参数托比特 (TGRP-Tobit).
- 员工使用偏差信息标准 (DIC) 来评估模型的合适性.
主要成果:
- 在T-Tobit和TGRP-Tobit模型中发现了显著的时间相关性,改善了模型的适合性.
- TGRP-Tobit模型显示出最好的性能,由最低的DIC表示,突出了考虑到未观察到异质性的好处.
- 与实时交通冲突率显著相关的关键因素包括交通量,冲击波区域和速度,队列长度和排队比率.
结论:
- 先进的建模技术对于准确分析交通冲突数据至关重要.
- 考虑到时间相关性和未观察到的异质性,可以大大提高交通安全模型的性能.
- 交通量,冲击波动态,队列长度和排队特征是十字路口安全的关键决定因素.
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