建立和验证基于SEER数据库的nomogram模型来预测上肢黑色素瘤的特定死亡风险
Mingju Gao1, Bingwei Wu1, Xinping Bai2
1Department of Plastic Surgery, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, No. 26 Shengli Street, Jiang'an District, Wuhan, 430014, Hubei, China.
Scientific reports
|April 26, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种名谱,用于预测上肢黑色素瘤患者的特定死亡风险,确定年龄和瘤阶段等关键因素. 该工具有助于创建更好的预后和后续策略,以改善生存率.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
背景情况:
- 特定死亡是上肢黑色素瘤的关键结果,通常比全因死亡率更为重要.
- 传统的生存分析可能会高估这种患者群体的死亡率.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种名谱模型,用于预测上肢黑色素瘤的特定死亡风险.
- 确定上肢黑色素瘤特定死亡的独立预测因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自SEER数据库的17,200名被诊断为上肢黑色素瘤的患者 (2010-2015年) 的数据.
- 采用竞争风险模型 (单因素和多因素分析) 来确定独立的预测因素.
- 根据统计学上显著的预测因素构建了一个名ogram.
主要成果:
- 确定年龄,婚姻状况,性别,瘤阶段,T阶段,M阶段,区域淋巴结手术,放射治疗,化疗,线性细胞数量,的存在和多种原发性癌症作为特定死亡的独立预测因素.
- 开发的诺米图表显示出对特定死亡风险的良好预测能力.
结论:
- 诺米图为评估上肢黑色素瘤患者的特定死亡风险提供了有价值的工具.
- 该模型可以帮助制定个性化的预后治疗和随访策略,以提高患者的生存率.
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