评估气候变化和土地利用变化对泰国东北部未来干旱的影响
Dibesh Khadka1,2, Mukand S Babel3,4, Tawatchai Tingsanchali1
1Water Engineering and Management (WEM), School of Engineering and Technology (SET), Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Klong Luang, P.O. Box 4, Pathum Thani, 12120, Thailand.
Scientific reports
|April 28, 2024
概括
气候变化和土地利用变化将加剧未来的干旱,特别是农业干旱. 迫切需要主动的水和土地管理策略,以建立抵御这些复合影响的弹性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化 (CC) 对干旱的影响已知,但土地利用变化 (LUC) 的影响尚不清楚.
- 干旱带来重大风险,特别是对农业,需要了解多种压力因素的影响.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较CC和LUC对未来水文和农业干旱的单独和综合影响.
- 在公河支流的1981-2010年基线上对2021-2050年的干旱特征进行预测.
主要方法:
- 预测气候和土地利用变化场景的比较分析.
- 评估水文和农业干旱变化,包括复发间隔和严重程度.
主要成果:
- CC显著缩短干旱复发间隔;在水文干旱中,LUC的影响不那么明显.
- CC和LUC都大大增加了农业干旱的持续时间和严重程度,联合影响导致更频繁,更强烈的事件.
- 预计每14年就会发生一次20年回报期事件,仅仅是由于CC.
结论:
- 未来的干旱,特别是农业干旱,将由于CC和LUC的结合而加剧.
- 解决水资源管理,土地利用和作物弹性问题的综合战略对于缓解和适应至关重要.
- 政策应将干旱风险纳入土地利用规划,并促进适应性农业实践.
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