2018-2048年中国中年后期和老年人群的功能依赖预测:一个动态的微观模拟
1School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Room 533, #1 West Wing of Medical Complex, 66 Gongchang Road, Guangming District, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China. jiangyw26@mail.sysu.edu.cn.
Global health research and policy
|April 28, 2024
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 老年学与公共卫生
- 人口预测 人口预测
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 中国面临着人口快速老龄化的问题.
- 缺乏对老年人功能依赖的长期预测.
- 了解未来对日常生活活动 (ADL) 和日常生活工具活动 (IADL) 支持的需求至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计中国未来的人口规模和功能依赖的老年人比例.
- 从2018年到2048年,在ADL和IADL中预测困难和依赖.
- 分析跨社会经济子组的功能地位差异.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个动态微模拟模型.
- 该模型预测了人口规模和功能依赖.
- 纳入了个人层面的相互作用和子组分析.
主要成果:
- 到2048年,将近25%的老年人可能依赖ADL,38%依赖IADL.
- 到2048年,严重的ADL残疾预计将占人口的17%.
- 预计在性别,教育和居住地之间,在功能地位方面会出现显著的不平等.
结论:
- 中国的功能上依赖的老年人口将在本世纪中叶显著增加.
- 跨子组的不成比例影响将加剧挑战.
- 需要有针对性的干预措施来改善服务不足人群的功能状态.
更多相关视频
08:43Application of Granger Causality Analysis of the Directed Functional Connection in Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment
Published on: August 7, 2017
7.9K
12:18A Machine Learning Approach to Design an Efficient Selective Screening of Mild Cognitive Impairment
Published on: January 11, 2020
7.5K
相关概念视频
01:30Cognitive Development During Adulthood
94
Cognitive development continues throughout adulthood, undergoing significant shifts across early, middle, and late stages. Individual transition occurs from adolescent idealism to pragmatic and adaptable thinking in early adulthood. During this period, individuals learn to integrate personal beliefs with the recognition that other perspectives are equally valid. Exposure to the complexities of modern society, diverse experiences, and higher education contribute to this adaptive thought process,...
94
02:20Longitudinal Research
12.0K
Sometimes we want to see how people change over time, as in studies of human development and lifespan. When we test the same group of individuals repeatedly over an extended period of time, we are conducting longitudinal research. Longitudinal research is a research design in which data-gathering is administered repeatedly over an extended period of time. For example, we may survey a group of individuals about their dietary habits at age 20, retest them a decade later at age 30, and then again...
12.0K