在尾大中不确定性和敏感性的分析 破裂-流失数值建模
Negar Ghahramani1,2, Daniel A M Adria1,3, Nahyan M Rana4
1Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
概括
通过应用一级第二时刻 (FOSM) 方法来减少尾矿破裂 (TDB) 冲出模拟的不确定性. 释放的体积和表面粗度等关键因素影响模型预测,改善风险评估.
科学领域:
- 地质技术工程 地质技术工程
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 尾矿漏洞 (TDBs) 对安全,环境和经济构成重大风险.
- 数字运行模型对于模拟TDB和评估下游影响至关重要.
- 在TDB的流动性和影响预测中存在很高的不确定性,这是由于复杂的突破-淘汰过程.
研究的目的:
- 评估TDB淘汰模型中的不确定性,使用第一阶秒时刻 (FOSM) 方法.
- 通过灵敏度分析识别影响HEC-RAS模型输出变量的关键因素.
- 提出FOSM作为一种概率方法,用于改进尾矿流失预测.
主要方法:
- 将FOSM方法应用于11个回溯分析的历史尾矿流.
- 在各种运行路径位置对HEC-RAS模型输出进行了敏感性分析.
- 研究了诸如释放的体积和表面粗度等参数的影响.
主要成果:
- 释放的总体量显著影响了洪水面积和流水深度.
- 表面粗度是流速和到达时间的关键因素.
- 主要敏感性贡献者因案例研究而异,强调特定地点的条件.
结论:
- FOSM方法提供了一个有效的近似概率方法,用于TDB淘汰模型.
- 准确的预测需要仔细选择风湿学模型,并考虑特定地点的数据.
- 改进的建模准确性提高了TDBs的风险评估和应急响应计划.
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